STOP THE PRESSES! New poll has Hayhurst-Stutzman neck and neck.

Posted: October 29, 2010 in Uncategorized

Earlier this week a poll was released by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics that showed Marlin Stutzman with a 25 point lead.  This poll did not fit in with various tracking polls the Hayhurst camp had done so they commissioned a new poll- and it is inline with their previous numbers.

Here is the release from the campaign:

Hayhurst Ahead in New Poll

HAYHURST LEADS STUTZMAN 40%-36%

FORT WAYNE- Tom Hayhurst’s Congressional Campaign released a new general election poll that shows Hayhurst leading Marlin Stutzman 40%-36% with Libertarian, Scott Wise, receiving 3%.

“Tom Hayhurst clearly has the momentum,” said Hayhurst Campaign Manager, Jason Kingsbury. The local poll that came out earlier this week was flawed and we have the data to prove it. This poll signals that Hoosiers know Tom Hayhurst is the best candidate for Northeast Indiana and Marlin Stutzman will take us back to the failed policies and promises of Congressman Souder.  In the final days of this campaign, Dr. Hayhurst will continue to work tirelessly to close the remaining gap and win this race for the folks of Northeast Indiana.”

The poll had a 400 person sample, and was taken by Riggs Research on October 27th and 28th. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

“We are very encouraged by the results of this poll, which shows what we’ve been saying all along; this race is neck and neck and will be decided on Election Day.  This poll is just another reflection of the level of support I have received from Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. It’s clear that we have the momentum and that voters don’t want another clone of Mark Souder,” said Hayhurst.

 GO TOM GO!!!!!!

UPDATE- here is the methodology.Hayhurst%20Methodology[1]

Advertisements
Comments
  1. Jim Stanley says:

    I wish it were true. But partisan internals cannot be relied upon.

    Regardless, my wife and I will cast our votes for Tom Hayhurst Tuesday, come hell or high water.

  2. Non believer says:

    Riggs Research? Never heard of them, and I cannot even find a web site for them. This is a laughable and pathetic last minute attempt, (and lie) to try to sway voters at the last minute. Nice name. Riggs, as in “rigged.”

  3. Kevin,

    Has the Hayhurst campaign released the details of this poll?

    Mike

  4. Non believer says:

    I highly doubt they’ll release the methodology and crosstabs, but I challenge them to do it so we can see how ridiculous this poll really is.

    Kevin, thanks for allowing my comments.

  5. Not according to that conservative news source, The New York Times: Stutzman 62.0% vs Hayhurst 35.3% with a +/- 9% margin. Dr. Hayhurst’s chances of winning (based upon 100,000 simulations): 0.5% to Stutzman’s 99.5%

    (source: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/indiana/3 )

  6. kknuth says:

    Dave, you may want to check out your source- that is NOT a poll. It is a calculation based on a variety of factors- money raised, past performance, etc. In this case, the have accidently included the money Stutzman raised for his Senate run.

  7. kknuth says:

    Non-believer:

    Riggs Research has been used by candidates in the State of Indiana for a long time. I know one candidate who has used them for 20 years.

    It is my understanding that the cross-tabs and methodology was released to the press.

  8. Kevin,

    WANE is reporting the disparity is due to Registered vs. Likely. Riggs polled 400 registered voters while the Mike Downs Center polled Likely voters. Andy Downs added “he believes his data is more accurate because he surveyed those likely to vote, not just those who are registered to vote.”
    (source: http://www.wane.com/dpp/news/hayhurst-campaign-releases-new-poll )

  9. Jim Stanley says:

    I hope so, Kevin. I really do!

  10. WANE reported last night that the discrepancy is due to Registered vs. Likely voters. The Mike Downs Center/SurveyUSA interviewed 2,335 registered voters, 1,600 who already voted, or likely to vote in the 11/02/10. Riggs only polled registered voters (400 of them).

  11. Former Republican says:

    Souder proved that he was not a defender of free markets by voting for a $800 billion dollar bank and auto industry bailout. Stutzman proves that he is not a defender of free markets by accepting a million or so of federal farm welfare.

    Souder proved he was not a family values candidate when he made a public spectacle of himself by having an affair. Stutzman flies around to campaign stops in a plane without disclosing the trips. Souder and Stutzman are just clowns

    I’m voting for Tom Hayhurst

  12. Non believer says:

    According to the News Sentinel, Riggs refused to disclose cross-tabs and methodology.

    Wonder why? Not me.

  13. Kevin Knuth says:

    non-believer, I find no such reference in the News Sentinel story- can you please point me to it. I think the press WAS given the cross tabs and methodology- in fact, I have seen a copy of the methodology that the News Sentinel received (it was forwarded to me later!)

  14. AWB says:

    Sure… give me a bit, but while we’re at it, since you’re privy to the cross tabs and methodology, post them here.

  15. kknuth says:

    I have added the methodology- look at the bottom of the original post.

    I do not have the cross tabs- but I did confirm that they were given to media members that requested them (though I am not sure all of them did).

  16. Phil Marx says:

    “The Hayhurst campaign’s poll was conducted and its results analyzed by Riggs Research Services of Indianapolis. James Riggs of that firm declined to discuss the methodology of the SurveyUSA poll.”

    http://www.news-sentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20101030/NEWS/10300337

  17. Kevin Knuth says:

    Phil, Why would he discuss the methodology of ANOTHER company? No need to.

    I will point out that I am a political commentator for WANE TV this year. When the Downs Center Poll was released ALL THREE COMMENTATORS (myself, John McGauley, and Kevin Leininger) agreed that the race did not have a 25 point spread- it was single digits.

    That means the Hayhurst poll is closer to the reality that we would expect to see. NOTE: I am NOT saying it is right…I really do not know who is right. I know that there are competing polls out there, and we will have to wait and see what happens.

  18. Jim Stanley says:

    Actually, I think both sides of the debate over this poll are correct…at least partially. Kevin has it spot-on when he says Riggs is a reasonably reputable pollster. Perhaps not a top-tier pollster like the big shot candidates use, but not a bottom-feeder by any stretch. I have seen them used — if memory serves — by a variety of political parties and interest groups.

    Please correct me if I am wrong on this — I do believe, however, the Riggs poll for Hayhurst was considered an “internal”. And in cases of internal polling — ie, polls conducted primarily for internal use (sometimes released publicly and sometimes not), there is an inherent tendancy to skew results even slightly in favor of the paying client. Much data gathered is still useful to the client, but the end results may not be terribly accurate.

    I am hoping and praying Dr. Hayhurst wins this one. I’d love to see an R+14 district help to blunt the expected Republican wave. And I shudder at the thought of Congressman Stutzman.

    That said, if Tom wins this thing — it’ll be one for the history books and one the wonks will study in detail for decades.

  19. Kevin Knuth says:

    Jim, having worked on several campaigns I would say your statement is incorrect. Campaigns pay for polls because they need to know where they stand- they do not expect skewed numbers.

    Clearly there is a sampling issue in one of these polls- I only think that the Riggs poll is more accurate because it follows other tracking polls that the campaign – and other democratic sources, took.

    Democrats should not take comfort in a poll showing us ahead by 4 points- this is a republican year, and those numbers can change in a heartbeat.

  20. Phil Marx says:

    Kevin,

    So now it’s not enough that I find the article. You actually expect me to read it first before I comment?

  21. Kevin Knuth says:

    Phil, I set high expectations of my readers! 😉

  22. Jermo says:

    Hayhurst couldn’t beat Souder (2006) in a very anti-Bush, anti-Republican environment.

    How will he beat Stutzman in a very anti-Obama, anti-Dem environment?

    Will people vote for Coats and not for Stutzman?

    Hey, maybe Ellsworth is actually ahead!

    Just way too much to over come. I don’t any polls to tell me what is obvious to the most casual observer.

    Color the 3rd RED.

  23. Jermo says:

    This one is a real nail biter.

    Look for a Groupon from Riggs Research real soon. I hope Dr. Tom didn’t pay too much for their “research”. He should check with The DailyKos on how not to poll.

  24. Jermo says:

    Where has Kevin gone? No one wants to play. I guess Kevin took his ball and went home.

    Remember, he gets paid for his “opiniojn”.

    Kevin said:
    “I will point out that I am a political commentator for WANE TV this year. When the Downs Center Poll was released ALL THREE COMMENTATORS (myself, John McGauley, and Kevin Leininger) agreed that the race did not have a 25 point spread- it was single digits.

    That means the Hayhurst poll is closer to the reality that we would expect to see. NOTE: I am NOT saying it is right…I really do not know who is right. I know that there are competing polls out there, and we will have to wait and see what happens.
    So much for reality. The Riggs poll & $4 will get you a McRib at McDonalds.

  25. Kevin Knuth says:

    Jermo, I am here, I have just had a busy day.

    For the record, I am NOT paid for my opinion. I was not paid for the WANE TV gig- except for going to lunch once with the news director!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s